The "ghost of the invasion" of Ukraine .. How did the snowball roll between Moscow and the West?
The Ukrainian crisis has come back to the fore in recent months, amid Western warnings to Russia of an invasion of Ukraine, while Moscow says it is seeking security guarantees in order to defuse tension.
And if this crisis has been inflamed, recently, on an increasing basis, its beginnings go back to years ago, specifically in 2014, when Russia annexed the Ukrainian Crimea.
Following this Russian move, a war broke out in eastern Ukraine with the separatists, whom the West says are militarily sponsored by Moscow, while Russia denies this.
military moves
On November 10, 2021, Washington requested clarifications from Russia regarding the "extraordinary" movements of its forces on the Ukrainian border, while in April Moscow had massed about 100,000 soldiers on the border.
For his part, Russian President Vladimir Putin accused the West of delivering weapons to Kiev and of conducting "provocative" military exercises in the Black Sea and near the border.
On November 28, Ukraine confirmed that Russia had massed some 92,000 troops on its border to launch an offensive at the end of January or early February.
The Russian authorities denied these allegations, accusing Ukraine of massing its forces in the east of the country.
Biden and Putin summit
On December 7, US President Joe Biden threatened his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, with "severe economic sanctions" in the event of an invasion of Ukraine, during a virtual bilateral summit.
The Russian president called for "credible legal guarantees" to prevent Ukraine from joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).
Russian forces in Belarus
On the 18th of this month, Moscow began deploying soldiers to Belarus to conduct previously unannounced exercises on combat readiness on the borders of the European Union and Ukraine.
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In the midst of these developments, Washington has expressed concern about the possible deployment of Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus.
On January 19, Anthony Blinken called on Vladimir Putin to choose the "peaceful path" during a support visit to Ukraine, at the start of a European tour.
In its response to the crisis, Washington allocated an additional $200 million in security assistance to Ukraine.
On January 20, the United States agreed to requests from the Baltic states to send American weapons to Ukraine.
Meet Lavrov Blinken
On the 21st, Anthony Blinken and his Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov, met in Geneva and agreed that the following week Washington would provide a written response to the Russian demands.
Russia called in particular for the withdrawal of foreign NATO forces stationed in Romania and Bulgaria.
Invasion "Anytime"
On January 22, London accused Russia of seeking to "install a pro-Russian leader in Kiev" and of planning to "occupy" Ukraine.
On the 23rd of this month, Kiev announced that it wanted to dismantle "any pro-Russian political and oligarchy structure."
Meanwhile, Washington, followed by London and Canberra, ordered the evacuation of the families of diplomats stationed in Kiev with a warning of a "Russian invasion" that could "happen at any moment".
Prepare for war
On January 24, NATO announced putting its forces on standby and sending ships and combat aircraft to reinforce its defenses in Eastern Europe, and Washington put up to 8,500 soldiers on alert.
The Kremlin accused Washington of causing "exacerbation of tension" and soon after held new exercises near Ukraine and in Crimea.
On January 26, Washington formally refused to commit to closing the door to Ukraine's accession to NATO, and suggested that Moscow seek a "serious diplomatic path".
The US said "everything indicates" that Vladimir Putin will use "military force" against Ukraine by mid-February and urged its citizens to "consider leaving now" from Ukraine.
In Paris, a meeting of Russian and Ukrainian envoys with French and German mediators resulted in a joint commitment to maintain a ceasefire between Ukrainian forces and pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine.
On Thursday, China endorsed Moscow's security concerns regarding Ukraine, calling them reasonable.